Paul's Fall Ramble
Oct 16, 2024
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Happy Wednesday from the Co-op!
It’s been a while since I sent a “Ramble” so I’ll make it a longer one!
It’s amazing to sit in my office on October 16th and have 99% of the soybeans and 40% of the corn harvested. In August we were PRAYING that we would get an above-average September to bring corn and soybeans to maturity. Guess what? WE got it and then some. We could not imagine that most of the soybeans would be combined in September and corn harvest would begin in early October. Soybeans, while the quality was good, were very dry with some down to 7%. Same with corn, moisture is between 13%-17% with most of it below 16%. While our yields were excellent, we need some moisture to replenish our subsoil, or we won’t be as fortunate next year.
Nationally, corn and bean harvest is ahead of the 5-year average. Corn is 47% complete vs. 21% average. Soybeans are 67% harvested vs. 51% average. In North Dakota, soybeans are 76% complete and corn is 19% complete.
The 2024 sugarbeet harvest has been slower than average. Typically, the harvest starts October 1st and is a 10–12 day campaign. With temperatures over 80° October 1st-12th, harvest was delayed a few days. The ideal temperature for sugarbeet harvest is between 40° and 65°. Farmers are hoping to keep harvesting for the next few days. Early reports of excellent yields and sugar content.
The USDA raised its corn yield estimate by 0.2 bu/ac on Friday to 183.8. If realized, this will beat the previous US record corn yield by 6.5 bu-set in 2023, at 177.3 bu/ac. New records are expected in many main corn-producing states including Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska. Illinois' 2024 corn yield is estimated at 222 bu/ac vs. the previous record of 214 set in 2022. Iowa is pegged at 214 vs. 204 bu/ac set in 2021, and Nebraska at 196 vs. 194 bu/ac. previously set in 2021 as well. The 2024 US soybean crop is expected to yield 53.1 bu/ac according to the October Crop Production report. This is 0.1 bu lower than the September report. This will be a new record for the US beating the previous high of 51.9 bu/ac set in 2016.
The extended weather forecasts in Brazil and the U.S. are the main factors right now in the futures market. Some much-needed rain hit in central and southern Brazil with more on the way. The best rain event of the season went through the heart of the grain production area in Argentina over the weekend.
In the past week, Russia attacked Ukrainian grain shipments and port infrastructure five times. The Ukrainian foreign minister said global food security is at risk due to these civilian attacks. Grain exports on the Black Sea were approaching levels seen before the war, but that has backed off with the recent missile attacks. While an attack like this would/was newsworthy 18 months ago, today it has little impact on the markets.
Fall fertilizer has also started. Farmers no more than get the crop harvested and they begin the process for 2025. Soil tests are coming back showing this year’s crop has depleted nutrients in our fields more than in past years.
Typically, this time of year our salesmen are out traveling with their customers in their combines, talking seed and inputs for the next year. Last week, Abby (Our Marketing Director) made up “snack bags” to give out to our farmers. No sales pitch, just some goodies and a thank you note to let them know we are thinking about them. The sales talk will come, but not now.
Prices: Corn is $3.30, in 2023, it was $4.30. Wheat is $5.60, $6.80 in 2023. Soybeans are at $9.10 compared to $12.00 in 2023.
Co-op Month is celebrated during October to raise awareness about a trusted, proven way to do business. The theme for this year’s Co-op Month is ‘The Future is Cooperative.’ 2025 will be recognized as the International Year of Cooperatives. I have been in the federated (Co-op) system my entire career. The cooperative model is something truly special, and our dedication to member empowerment, community development, and for fostering an environment where everyone has a stake in the success of the whole. Whether it's providing access to markets, reducing costs, or creating opportunities for collaboration, the positive impact of the co-op is clear. Cooperatives strengthen not just individual members but the entire community, and that’s something to be proud of.
My grandson, Brayden is playing junior hockey in Tampa, FL. It has been a dream of his to play hockey beyond high school. This was an opportunity he took and even though it was a long way from Minnesota, it was what he wanted. He and I planned on bringing him home last Thursday for a long weekend and it was going to be a surprise to his family. Hurricane Milton had other plans. We stayed in touch, and it was looking like he would not make it home and he would have to go through his 1st hurricane which was forecasted to hit Tampa on Wednesday. He called me Tuesday at 11 AM on his way home from practice and said his flight was canceled and the Tampa airport was closing at noon. He was wondering what we should/could do. He said there was a flight out of Orlando (2 hours away) at 2:30. I said, “Let’s go for it”. He headed to Orlando in heavy traffic, while I booked the flight, checked him in, sent him the boarding pass, and PRAYED he got there in time. It was the longest 2 ½ hours of my life! I was a wreck! He made it to the Orlando airport with 30 minutes to spare and flew home to Minnesota! All he had was his phone & wallet! His mom & sister knew but the rest of the family were shocked when he walked into the house. He got to spend 5 days at home with family and friends. He went back to Tampa on Sunday.
With the story of Brayden’s journey home in mind, the importance of family, and living in the “moment”, here’s a story to end my Ramble. It’s long, but worth it.
She had been shopping with her mom in Wal-Mart. She must have been 6 years old, this beautiful red-haired, freckle-faced image of innocence. It was pouring outside. The kind of rain that gushes over the top of rain gutters, so much in a hurry to hit the earth it has no time to flow down the spout.
"Mom, let's run through the rain," she said. "What?" Mom asked. "Let's run through the rain!" She repeated. "No, honey. We'll wait until it slows down a bit," Mom replied.
This young child waited about another minute and repeated: "Mom, let's run through the rain." "We'll get soaked if we do," Mom said. No, we won't. Mom, that’s not what you said this morning," the young girl said as she tugged at her mom’s arm. "This morning? When did I say we would run through the rain and not get wet?"
"Don't you remember? When you were talking to Daddy about his cancer, you said, 'If God can get us through this, he can get us through anything!'"
The entire crowd stopped dead silent. I swear you couldn't hear anything but the rain. We all stood silently. No one came or left in the next few minutes. Mom paused and thought for a moment about what she would say.
"Honey, you are absolutely right. Let's run through the rain. If God lets us get wet, well maybe we just needed washing," Mom said.
Then off they ran. We all stood watching, smiling and laughing as they darted past the cars and yes, through the puddles. They held their shopping bags over their heads just in case. They got soaked. But they were followed by a few who screamed and laughed like children all the way to their cars. And yes, I did. I ran. I got wet. I needed washing.
Circumstances or people can take away your material possessions, they can take away your money, and they can take away your health. But no one can ever take away your precious memories...So, don't forget to make time to take the opportunities to make memories every day!
To everything, there is a season and a time to every purpose under heaven.
I HOPE YOU STILL TAKE THE TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE RAIN. * Keep in touch with your friends, you never know when you'll need each other. *
Have a safe rest of the week!
Paul
If God brings you to it, he'll bring you through it.............
Happy Wednesday from the Co-op!
It’s been a while since I sent a “Ramble” so I’ll make it a longer one!
It’s amazing to sit in my office on October 16th and have 99% of the soybeans and 40% of the corn harvested. In August we were PRAYING that we would get an above-average September to bring corn and soybeans to maturity. Guess what? WE got it and then some. We could not imagine that most of the soybeans would be combined in September and corn harvest would begin in early October. Soybeans, while the quality was good, were very dry with some down to 7%. Same with corn, moisture is between 13%-17% with most of it below 16%. While our yields were excellent, we need some moisture to replenish our subsoil, or we won’t be as fortunate next year.
Nationally, corn and bean harvest is ahead of the 5-year average. Corn is 47% complete vs. 21% average. Soybeans are 67% harvested vs. 51% average. In North Dakota, soybeans are 76% complete and corn is 19% complete.
The 2024 sugarbeet harvest has been slower than average. Typically, the harvest starts October 1st and is a 10–12 day campaign. With temperatures over 80° October 1st-12th, harvest was delayed a few days. The ideal temperature for sugarbeet harvest is between 40° and 65°. Farmers are hoping to keep harvesting for the next few days. Early reports of excellent yields and sugar content.
The USDA raised its corn yield estimate by 0.2 bu/ac on Friday to 183.8. If realized, this will beat the previous US record corn yield by 6.5 bu-set in 2023, at 177.3 bu/ac. New records are expected in many main corn-producing states including Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska. Illinois' 2024 corn yield is estimated at 222 bu/ac vs. the previous record of 214 set in 2022. Iowa is pegged at 214 vs. 204 bu/ac set in 2021, and Nebraska at 196 vs. 194 bu/ac. previously set in 2021 as well. The 2024 US soybean crop is expected to yield 53.1 bu/ac according to the October Crop Production report. This is 0.1 bu lower than the September report. This will be a new record for the US beating the previous high of 51.9 bu/ac set in 2016.
The extended weather forecasts in Brazil and the U.S. are the main factors right now in the futures market. Some much-needed rain hit in central and southern Brazil with more on the way. The best rain event of the season went through the heart of the grain production area in Argentina over the weekend.
In the past week, Russia attacked Ukrainian grain shipments and port infrastructure five times. The Ukrainian foreign minister said global food security is at risk due to these civilian attacks. Grain exports on the Black Sea were approaching levels seen before the war, but that has backed off with the recent missile attacks. While an attack like this would/was newsworthy 18 months ago, today it has little impact on the markets.
Fall fertilizer has also started. Farmers no more than get the crop harvested and they begin the process for 2025. Soil tests are coming back showing this year’s crop has depleted nutrients in our fields more than in past years.
Typically, this time of year our salesmen are out traveling with their customers in their combines, talking seed and inputs for the next year. Last week, Abby (Our Marketing Director) made up “snack bags” to give out to our farmers. No sales pitch, just some goodies and a thank you note to let them know we are thinking about them. The sales talk will come, but not now.
Prices: Corn is $3.30, in 2023, it was $4.30. Wheat is $5.60, $6.80 in 2023. Soybeans are at $9.10 compared to $12.00 in 2023.
Co-op Month is celebrated during October to raise awareness about a trusted, proven way to do business. The theme for this year’s Co-op Month is ‘The Future is Cooperative.’ 2025 will be recognized as the International Year of Cooperatives. I have been in the federated (Co-op) system my entire career. The cooperative model is something truly special, and our dedication to member empowerment, community development, and for fostering an environment where everyone has a stake in the success of the whole. Whether it's providing access to markets, reducing costs, or creating opportunities for collaboration, the positive impact of the co-op is clear. Cooperatives strengthen not just individual members but the entire community, and that’s something to be proud of.
My grandson, Brayden is playing junior hockey in Tampa, FL. It has been a dream of his to play hockey beyond high school. This was an opportunity he took and even though it was a long way from Minnesota, it was what he wanted. He and I planned on bringing him home last Thursday for a long weekend and it was going to be a surprise to his family. Hurricane Milton had other plans. We stayed in touch, and it was looking like he would not make it home and he would have to go through his 1st hurricane which was forecasted to hit Tampa on Wednesday. He called me Tuesday at 11 AM on his way home from practice and said his flight was canceled and the Tampa airport was closing at noon. He was wondering what we should/could do. He said there was a flight out of Orlando (2 hours away) at 2:30. I said, “Let’s go for it”. He headed to Orlando in heavy traffic, while I booked the flight, checked him in, sent him the boarding pass, and PRAYED he got there in time. It was the longest 2 ½ hours of my life! I was a wreck! He made it to the Orlando airport with 30 minutes to spare and flew home to Minnesota! All he had was his phone & wallet! His mom & sister knew but the rest of the family were shocked when he walked into the house. He got to spend 5 days at home with family and friends. He went back to Tampa on Sunday.
With the story of Brayden’s journey home in mind, the importance of family, and living in the “moment”, here’s a story to end my Ramble. It’s long, but worth it.
| Take Time |
"Mom, let's run through the rain," she said. "What?" Mom asked. "Let's run through the rain!" She repeated. "No, honey. We'll wait until it slows down a bit," Mom replied.
This young child waited about another minute and repeated: "Mom, let's run through the rain." "We'll get soaked if we do," Mom said. No, we won't. Mom, that’s not what you said this morning," the young girl said as she tugged at her mom’s arm. "This morning? When did I say we would run through the rain and not get wet?"
"Don't you remember? When you were talking to Daddy about his cancer, you said, 'If God can get us through this, he can get us through anything!'"
The entire crowd stopped dead silent. I swear you couldn't hear anything but the rain. We all stood silently. No one came or left in the next few minutes. Mom paused and thought for a moment about what she would say.
"Honey, you are absolutely right. Let's run through the rain. If God lets us get wet, well maybe we just needed washing," Mom said.
Then off they ran. We all stood watching, smiling and laughing as they darted past the cars and yes, through the puddles. They held their shopping bags over their heads just in case. They got soaked. But they were followed by a few who screamed and laughed like children all the way to their cars. And yes, I did. I ran. I got wet. I needed washing.
Circumstances or people can take away your material possessions, they can take away your money, and they can take away your health. But no one can ever take away your precious memories...So, don't forget to make time to take the opportunities to make memories every day!
To everything, there is a season and a time to every purpose under heaven.
I HOPE YOU STILL TAKE THE TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE RAIN. * Keep in touch with your friends, you never know when you'll need each other. *
Have a safe rest of the week!
Paul
If God brings you to it, he'll bring you through it.............